Welcome!
I am a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Government at Harvard University. I study comparative political economy and political behavior in advanced democracies, focusing on the political consequences of structural economic transitions to knowledge and green economies.
My research examines how voters and communities respond to rising economic inequality from deindustrialization, globalization, technological change, and green transitions; and how economic change transforms the nature of political conflicts across geographies. Specifically, my dissertation asks: why do voters facing economic transitions sometimes shift to the left and demand compensation from the state, while at other times they turn to the right and support candidates who offer exclusionary and protectionist policies? My argument highlights how concurrent transformations in political parties and welfare states have reshaped voter responses to economic shocks.
Curriculum Vitae (Updated August 2025)
Email: [email protected]
Publications
(with Peter Hall)
Comparative Political Studies, 2024
Abstract (click to expand): On the premise that issues of fairness are important to voting behavior but often unrecognized, we explore how feelings of unfairness increase support for populist parties. We distinguish personal unfairness, the view that one’s own economic situation is unfair, from social unfairness, the view that the economic situation of others in society is unfair. Based on findings in psychology, we argue that uncertainties associated with the transition to a globalized knowledge economy heighten people’s feelings of personal unfairness and find empirical support for that contention. We develop arguments about why feelings of personal unfairness should increase support for the populist right and feelings about social unfairness should increase support for the populist left and find empirical support for them. Our results contribute to explanations for why people vote for the populist right rather than the left and underline the roles that uncertainty and issues of fairness play in electoral politics.
(with Peter Hall and Georgina Evans)
Elements in European Politics Series, Cambridge University Press, 2023
Abstract (click to expand): This Element documents long-term changes in the politicalattitudes of occupational groups, shifts in the salience of economic and cultural issues, and the movement of political parties in the electoral space from 1990 to 2018 in eight Western democracies. We evaluate prominent contentions about how electoral contestation has changed and why support for mainstream parties has declined while support for challenger parties has increased. We contribute a new analysis of how the viability of the types of electoral coalitions assembled by center-left, center-right, radical-right, and Green parties changes over these decades. We find that their viability is affected by changes over time in citizens' attitudes to economic and cultural issues and shifts in the relative salience of those issues. We examine the contribution these developments make to declining support for mainstream center-left and center-right coalitions and increasing support for coalitions underpinning radical-right and Green parties.
Working Papers
Left Behind by the Left? Deindustrialization and Voting in the UK, 1974-2019
Draft Available Upon Request
Job Market Paper
Abstract (click to expand): Why do voters exposed to localized economic shocks not support left-wing parties? I argue that the center-left party's pivot to new middle-class voters can account for this pattern. Drawing on local- and individual-level data spanning the past 50 years in the UK and using a shift-share approach, I show that local exposure to deindustrialization shocks increased support for Labour in the 1970-80s, when Labour remained loyal to traditional manufacturing industries. This electoral support was accompanied by increasing support for redistribution and social benefits for the unemployed. However, as Labour began to pivot towards growing service and knowledge-based industries in the 1990s, deindustrialization shocks no longer translated into a leftward shift. To shed light on mechanisms behind this change, I show that the reversal in voter responses mainly took place in constituencies exposed to New Labour candidates. I do not find evidence supporting alternative mechanisms that emphasize voters' conservative attitudes, the supply of radical right parties, or the decline of trade unions.
Coal Phase-out and Backlash Against Green Transitions in EP Elections
Draft Available Upon Request
Under Review
Abstract (click to expand): While phasing out coal is essential to address climate change, fossil fuel-dependent communities with limited alternative industries may face significant distributional costs. Drawing on regional-level data from European Parliament elections and individual-level survey data, this paper examines the political consequences of coal-fired power plant closures across 15 European countries between 2005 and 2019. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, I find that closures reduce support for parties advocating green transitions in EP elections. Furthermore, combining local- and individual-level data, I provide evidence that dissatisfaction with local public services may underpin this backlash. These findings suggest that regional economic losses from coal phase-out are often attributed not only domestically but also to EU-level policymaking, highlighting the need for EU-wide policies to compensate communities for lost tax revenues to sustain international cooperation for green transitions.
Transitory Shocks, Permanent Shocks, and Voting Behavior
Draft Available Upon Request
Abstract (click to expand): Why do some economic shocks generate leftward electoral shifts while others lead to rightward shifts? This paper argues that the types of shocks and the associated credibility of compensation matter. Transitory shocks strengthen voters’ demand for redistribution and this demand has been met by the supply of short-term compensation policies typically from left‐wing parties. While permanent shocks also increase demands for redistribution, in addition they heighten the salience of threats to social status and fuel nativist attitudes. When long‐term compensation is perceived as inadequate and less credible, the status concern tends to dominate voting decisions. I test empirical implications of this theory with multiple survey datasets. First, I present evidence that cyclical recessions tend to be perceived as transitory and structural changes like skill-biased technological change and deindustrialization are perceived as permanent. Second, I create a novel measure of transitory and permanent shocks using the German socioeconomic panel and show that they are distinctively associated with voting for radical left- and radical right parties.
Work in Progress
Voting in the World's Rust Belts Over the Past 50 Years
Electoral Costs of Policy Discontinuity in Green Transitions: Evidence from EV Subsidy Cuts in Germany
(with Doeun Kim)
Left Behind Boys? Gendered Mobility, Local Dating Markets, and Political Attitudes in the US
Website: This website is adapted from Gautam Rao’s website.
